‪NETFLIX 原创纪录片
You could think of yourself driving in a mountainous area
‪你可以想一下自己在山区开车的场景
with the road circling up the mountain.
‪道路盘旋而上
An overpowered engine driving much, much too fast,
‪超功率运行的发动机运转过快
driving without any headlights.
‪你行驶时没有开亮前灯
Cliffs that you're at risk of falling over.
‪而路旁就是有坠落风险的悬崖
You want, of course, to turn on the headlights,
‪你当然想打开前灯
and that is what science tries to do all the time.
‪这正是科学一直以来尝试做的事
To give us the headlights so we can see what risks we're facing.
‪科学为我们打开前灯‪让我们能够看到所面临的风险
Recent discoveries made by scientists
‪在对于我们星球运作方式的研究方面
studying the ways in which our planet works
‪科学家的最新发现
are surely of the greatest importance for all of us.
‪对我们所有人来说
‪无疑是最重要的
Their insights are deeply troubling.
‪他们的见解令人深感忧虑
Nonetheless, they also give us hope,
‪尽管如此 他们也给了我们希望
because they show us how we can fix things.
‪因为他们向我们展现如何去解决问题
One of those who has devoted his life
‪其中有一位毕生致力于
to studying these globally important problems
‪研究这些全球重要问题的人
comes from Sweden.
‪来自瑞典
Johan Rockström.
‪他是约翰罗克斯特罗姆
What he and his colleagues around the world have discovered
‪他和他在世界各地的同事的发现
is perhaps the most important scientific insight of our times.
‪也许是我们这个时代‪最重要的科学见解
Johan has given us hope.
‪约翰给了我们希望
Hope that there is a way out of this crisis.
‪希望能有办法摆脱这场危机
And once you too have heard it,
‪而且一旦你也听到了
you may never look at the world in the same way again.
‪你可能永远不会‪再以同样的方式看待世界
This is not about the planet.
‪这与地球无关
This is about us. It is about our future.
‪这与我们有关 这关乎我们的未来
We still have a chance.
‪我们还有机会
The window is still open for us to have a future for humanity.
‪为了人类的未来‪这扇窗还在为我们敞开着
That I think is the beauty of where we are today.
‪我想这就是我们如今的魅力所在
Our understanding of how our planet works
‪我们对我们星球运作方式的理解
is always advancing.
‪总是在进步
We can now see more clearly than ever
‪我们现在可以比以往更清晰地看到
how life's intricate complexity is essential for our own survival.
‪生命的错综复杂
‪对我们的生存至关重要
But biodiversity is collapsing, and our climate is changing.
‪但是生物多样性正在崩塌‪我们的气候也在发生变化
Johan Rockström has focused on what keeps our planet stable.
‪约翰罗克斯特罗姆‪专注于找出保持这个星球稳定的原因
We're the first generation, thanks to science,
‪感谢科技进步 我们是第一代人
to be informed that we may be undermining
‪被告知我们可能
the stability and the ability of planet Earth
‪为了支持我们所知的人类发展
to support human development as we know it.
‪正在破坏地球的稳定与能力
This comes from ice core data,
‪这来自于冰芯数据
and I think that this is the most important graph we have today.
‪我认为这是我们今天最重要的图表
‪这张图表是个启示
The graph is a revelation.
It shows global temperature variability
‪它显示了自现代人类出现以来
over the past 100,000 years
‪过去10万年来的
since the first appearance of modern humans.
‪全球气温变化情况
We were jumping between plus-minus ten degrees Celsius in a decade.
‪十年来‪气温在正负10摄氏度之间跳跃
We had, to put it simple, a rough time.
‪简单来说 我们过得很艰难
What's critical is that the temperature stabilized
‪最关键的是 温度在一万年前
just 10,000 years ago.
‪就稳定下来了
‪（时期 几千年前）
You can just see from the graph that this is a remarkable,
‪从图中可以看出 这非同寻常
not to say almost miraculously stable, interglacial period.
‪更不用说‪间冰期几乎稳定得如奇迹一般
Geologists have given this period of stability
‪地质学家给这段稳定期
its own special name.
‪起了一个特殊的名字
It's called the Holocene.
‪这就是所谓的全新世
The Holocene is remarkable.
‪全新世简直就是奇迹
It is a warm period where the planet's global mean temperature
‪这是个暖期 在整个期间
varies between just plus-minus one degree Celsius
‪地球的全球平均温度
during the entire period.
‪仅在正负1摄氏度之间变化
Plus-minus one.
‪正负1
…is plus-minus one degree Celsius.
‪…是正负1摄氏度
This is what established the modern world as we know it.
‪这就是建立我们所知的‪现代世界的基础
The Holocene's stable temperatures
‪全新世稳定的温度‪给了我们一个稳定的星球
gave us a stable planet.
Sea levels stabilized.
‪海平面稳定了下来
For the first time,
‪我们第一次
we had predictable seasons and reliable weather.
‪有了可以预测的季节和可靠的天气
This stability was fundamental.
‪这种稳定性是根本
For the first time, civilization was possible,
‪第一次 文明成为了可能
and humanity wasted no time in taking advantage.
‪人类没有浪费任何时间‪对其进行了充分利用
We domesticated rice, wheat,
‪我们在不同的大陆
teff, maize, sorghum,
‪几乎同时栽培了大米、小麦
on different continents roughly at the same time.
‪苔麸、玉米和高梁
And off we go on the civilizational journey as we know it.
‪然后我们
‪踏上了我们所知的文明之旅
This is the interglacial stage that has enabled us
‪这是间冰期
to develop modern civilizations as we know it.
‪使我们能够发展‪我们所知的现代文明
The Holocene is the only state of the planet we know for certain
‪全新世是我们唯一‪可以确定的地球状态
can support the modern world as we know it.
‪它可以支持我们所知的现代世界
Since the dawn of civilization,
‪自文明诞生以来
‪我们一直依赖于地球的这种稳定状态
we have depended on this stable state of the planet.
A planet with two permanent ice caps,
‪这个星球有两个永久性的冰盖
flowing rivers,
‪有流动的河流
a cloak of forests,
‪有遮蔽的森林
reliable weather,
‪有可靠的天气
and an abundance of life.
‪还有众多生物
Throughout the Holocene,
‪在整个全新世
this stable planet has given us food to eat,
‪这个稳定的星球‪为我们提供了可以吃的食物
water to drink, and clean air to breathe.
‪可以饮用的水和可以呼吸的清新空气
But we have just left the Holocene behind.
‪但是我们却把全新世抛在了身后
The exponential rise in human pressures on planet Earth
‪人类对地球呈指数级增长的压力
has now reached a stage
‪现在已经到了一个阶段
where we have now created our own geological epoch.
‪我们现在已经创造了自己的地质纪元
‪科学家近日宣布 全新世已经结束
Scientists recently declared that the Holocene has ended
and that we are now in the Anthropocene,
‪我们现在正处于人类世
the age of humans,
‪这是人类的时代
because we now are the primary drivers of change
‪因为我们现在是地球上变化的
on planet Earth.
‪主要驱动力
We have converted half the world's habitable land
‪我们改造了世界上一半的宜居土地
to grow crops and rear livestock.
‪种植农作物 并饲养家畜
We move more sediment and rock than all the Earth's natural processes.
‪我们移动的沉积物和岩石‪比地球上全部自然过程都要多
More than half of the ocean is actively fished.
‪半数以上的海洋都在活跃捕捞
Nine out of ten of us breathe unhealthy air.
‪我们每十个人中有九个‪呼吸着不健康的空气
And, in a single lifetime,
‪而且 在一生中
we have warmed the Earth by more than one degree.
‪我们让地球升温了不止1度
I would say that perhaps the most dire message to humanity
‪我要说的是‪也许对人类来说 最可怕的信息
is the following.
‪是以下几点
So we have, in just 50 years,
‪在短短的50年里
managed to push ourselves
‪我们就设法把自己
outside of a state that we've been in for the past 10,000 years.
‪从过去保持了一万年的状态中
‪推了出去
Are we at risk of destabilizing the whole planet?
‪我们是否有破坏‪整个星球稳定的风险？
It's just a mind-boggling situation to be in.
‪这种情况实在是令人匪夷所思
For the first time, we have to seriously consider
‪这是我们第一次不得不认真考虑
the risk of destabilizing the entire planet.
‪破坏整个星球稳定的风险
‪（波茨坦气候影响研究所）
Johan's ambition has been to see the big picture.
‪约翰的抱负一直是看到全局
To draw from a global network of knowledge,
‪利用全球知识网络
to learn what keeps the entire planet stable.
‪了解是什么让整个星球保持稳定
What are the systems that determine the state of the planet?
‪有哪些系统决定了这个星球的状态？
And if they are five or if they were 30,
‪如果有5个系统‪或者如果曾有30个系统
we did not know when we started.
‪我们就不会知道什么时候开始
We just open-ended asked the question,
‪我们只是开放性地提出了问题
"Can we identify the systems that regulate the state of the planet?"
‪“我们能确定‪调节这个星球状态的系统吗？”
Those systems have held the planet in its stable state
‪那些系统在整个全新世
‪一直把这个星球保持在稳定状态
throughout the Holocene.
As we increase our pressures on Earth,
‪随着我们对地球压力的增加‪这些系统会有
there is a danger that those systems will start to break down.
‪开始崩塌的危险
That we will break through Earth's boundaries,
‪我们会突破地球的界限
causing the stability that we depend on to collapse.
‪导致我们赖以生存的稳定局面崩塌
I was absolutely convinced that we wanted
‪我绝对相信 我们想要
to dig into this challenge of defining planetary boundaries,
‪深入探索定义地球界限的挑战
and can we identify a quantitative point
‪我们能否确定一个数量点
beyond which we risk triggering nonlinear changes?
‪超过这个范围‪我们就有可能触发非线性变化
And that becomes your boundary.
‪那就是你的界限？
If scientists could define our planet's boundaries,
‪如果科学家能够定义我们星球的界限
‪他们能不能也给我们路线图
could they also give us the road map to guide us out of our current crisis?
‪引导我们摆脱目前的危机
To show us not only how to avoid collapse,
‪不仅向我们展示如何避免崩塌
but how to secure our own thriving future on planet Earth?
‪还有如何确保我们自己‪在地球上蓬勃发展的未来？
The first and most obvious boundary is well known to us all.
‪我们大家都知道‪第一个也是最明显的界限
With global temperatures now warmer
‪目前全球气温
than they've been since the dawn of civilization,
‪比文明诞生以来还要高
there is a danger that we have already crossed the boundary in Earth's climate.
‪眼下存在一种危险 我们已经越过了
‪地球气候的界限
Perhaps the most alarming evidence of this
‪也许最令人震惊的证据
is in the change of our planet's ice.
‪就是我们星球冰层的变化
As a Swede, Johan feels this more keenly than most.
‪身为瑞典人 约翰比大多数人‪更能深切地感受到这一点
As a kid in Sweden, like all children in Sweden,
‪身为瑞典儿童‪像所有的瑞典儿童一样
we learn that the south top at Kebnekaise is the highest peak in this country.
‪我们知道 凯布讷山的南峰
‪是瑞典的最高峰
And it's something that is just ingrained
‪这正是作为瑞典公民
‪一种根深蒂固的认同
in the identity of being a Swedish citizen.
So, of course, it's…
‪因此 这令人黯然神伤
You know, with sadness,
‪你知道
one comes to realize that that will no longer be the case.
‪人们逐渐意识到‪情况将会有所改变
The south peak of Kebnekaise
‪凯布讷山的南峰最近失去了
has recently lost its status as the highest peak in Sweden.
‪瑞典最高峰的地位
The glacier that makes up its highest point
‪在过去的50年里
has been shrinking roughly at the rate of half a meter a year
‪构成其最高点的冰川
for the last 50 years.
‪每年大约以半米的速度缩小
‪我们在凯布讷山这里看到的
What we're seeing here at Kebnekaise
on its own will not destabilize the planet.
‪本身不会破坏这个星球的稳定
But having two caps of a permanent ice
‪但是在北极和南极的
in the Arctic and in Antarctica is
‪两个永久性冰盖
the very precondition for the planet to stay in this state
‪是这个星球维持这种状态的先决条件
that has enabled us to develop civilizations as we know it.
‪使我们能够发展我们所知的文明
And that's why it's such an enormous concern
‪这就是为什么看到冰川消融
to see glaciers melting,
‪令人非常担忧的原因
irrespective of whether it's a small glacier at Kebnekaise,
‪不管是凯布讷山的小冰川
or whether we're talking about Greenland,
‪还是我们正在谈论的格陵兰岛
because they all add together
‪因为它们加在一起
to this fantastic capacity of cooling the planet.
‪有着让这个星球降温的神奇能力
This cooling effect was fundamental
‪这种冷却效应在整个全新世
in keeping the Earth's temperature stable throughout the Holocene.
‪是维持地球温度的根本
The planet's ice was reflecting just the right amount of the Sun's energy
‪这个星球的冰层‪刚好把足够的太阳能量
back into space.
‪反射回太空
A permanent white surface like what we can see around us here
‪像我们在这里看到的‪永久性白色表面
is reflecting back 90, 95% of incoming heat from the Sun.
‪将90、95%来自太阳的能量反射回去
When these ice sheets start melting,
‪当这些冰盖开始消融时
not only do they shrink in size
‪它们不仅尺寸缩小
so the fringe areas are very dark and absorb heat,
‪边缘区域也很暗会吸收热量
but even just the fact that you get liquid surface on the ice
‪但是即使只是在冰面上‪得到液体表面的事实
changes the color so significantly, so you can come to a point
‪也会使颜色发生如此显著的变化‪这样就会达到这种情况
where the ice sheets tip over from being self-cooling
‪冰盖会翻转 从自冷
to becoming self-warming,
‪变成自暖
and that is the most dramatic tipping point
‪这是地球系统里最具戏剧性的
in the Earth's system.
‪临界点
A tipping point is a point
‪临界点是指
beyond which a change becomes irreversible.
‪改变无法逆转的点
It's like a train that's parked on a slope,
‪它就像是停在坡道上的火车
and it's beginning to move.
‪开始移动
We're losing the brakes on the train,
‪火车的刹车失灵了
and so the train is accelerating,
‪火车在加速
getting faster and faster, and at some point, we lose control.
‪开得越来越快‪在某一刻 我们失去了控制
We are already losing the brakes
‪我们已经失去了
that could prevent the melting of the Greenland ice cap.
‪可以阻止格陵兰岛‪冰盖消融的刹车系统
When I first came here, aged 20,
‪我20岁第一次来这里时
‪感觉就像是场梦…
it felt like kind of a dream,
‪（杰森博克斯教授‪丹麦和格陵兰岛地质调查局）
because I was seeing landscapes that I had only kind of seen in textbooks.
‪…因为我看到了‪只能在教科书上看到的风景
Jason is one of the many scientists around the world
‪因为其证据和见解‪杰森是全世界众多
whose evidence and insights were fundamental to Johan's research.
‪为约翰研究提供基础的
‪科学家中的一员
The millennia snowfall onto Greenland has accumulated,
‪格陵兰岛上的千年积雪
produced this dome of ice.
‪产生了这个冰穹
It's two miles thick and, you know, well up in the atmosphere.
‪冰穹有3,2公里里厚‪而且就在大气层里
It's really cold up there.
‪那里真的很冷
As it melts, the surface of the ice cap
‪冰穹在消融时 冰盖表面
lowers into warmer air,
‪降低到更温暖的空气中
speeding up the melt.
‪加快了消融速度
The more it melts,
‪冰穹消融得越多 气候就需要
the cooler the climate would need to become in order to reverse it.
‪变得越冷 才能使冰穹逆转
But today's climate is already too hot for Greenland.
‪但如今的气候‪对格陵兰岛来说已经太热了
So in the current climate, Greenland is already beyond its threshold,
‪所以在目前的气候下‪格陵兰岛已经超出了它的临界值
er, where it's now losing 10,000 cubic meters of ice per second.
‪它现在每秒有1万立方米的冰块消失
That's the average loss rate.
‪这是平均损失率
Now, that loss rate will only continue
‪现在 损失率只会随着
as the climate heats up.
‪气候变暖持续下去
So is Greenland lost?
‪格陵兰岛无法恢复了吗？
Evidently, it is.
‪显然是的
Unless we can significantly cool the Earth's climate,
‪除非我们能显著冷却地球的气候
the melting of the Greenland ice cap will inevitably continue.
‪否则格陵兰岛冰盖的消融‪将会不可避免地继续下去
The drama here is that one characteristic of tipping points
‪这里的戏剧性在于‪临界点的一个特点是
is that once you've pressed the on button, you cannot stop it.
‪一旦你按下了开始按钮‪就无法加以阻止
‪它占了上风 一切太迟了‪你又不能说：
It takes over. It's too late. It's not like you could say,
"Oops. Now I realize I didn't want to melt the Greenland ice sheet.
‪“糟糕 现在我才意识到‪我不想让格陵兰岛的冰层消融
Let's… Let's back off."
‪我们退回去吧”
Then, it's too late.
‪那就太迟了
When you cross these tipping points, you can enter a point of no return
‪但你越过这些临界点时‪就进入到不可逆转的点
that you basically commit the planet to an irreversible sliding away
‪像我们这种情况
‪你基本上可以确定这个星球
from a state that, in our case, can support us humans.
‪从支持我们人类的状态
‪滑向不可逆转的未来
The melting of Greenland's ice cap
‪格陵兰岛冰盖的消融
would raise sea levels around the world by seven meters.
‪将使全世界的海平面上升七米
Imagine a world where sea level is not static.
‪想象一下海平面变化的世界
Where it's changing.
‪随着它的改变
Cities, hundreds of coastal cities now are threatened by rising seas.
‪数以百计的沿海城市
‪现在正受到海平面上升的威胁
Er, that stability in sea level was key
‪海平面的稳定
to the development of civilization.
‪是文明发展的关键
It's… It's a… It's a Mad Max future that we're facing.
‪我们面临的是《疯狂麦克斯》‪那样的未来
But Greenland is just one of Earth's polar ice caps,
‪但是格陵兰岛只是‪地球极地冰盖中的一个
and it's dwarfed by its southern twin.
‪但跟它南边的冰盖相比要小得多
Not so many years ago,
‪就在几年前
it was thought that Antarctica was the resilient system.
‪人们还在认为南极洲
‪是能够迅速恢复的系统
This was the ice sheet that was not very much affected by climate change.
‪因为冰层受气候的影响不算大
But today, that has changed completely.
‪但是如今 这种情况已经完全改变了
Today we're seeing accelerated loss of mass
‪如今 我们看到南极洲‪消融的块体和冰块
and loss of ice into the ocean in Antarctica.
‪加快了进入海洋的速度
West Antarctica would lead to sea-level rise of more than five meters
‪如果南极洲西部完全消融
if it were to melt down completely,
‪将导致海平面上升超过5米
and then east Antarctica actually holds the tenfold of that,
‪而南极洲东部是西部的十倍
so more than 50 meters worth of sea-level potential.
‪所以海平面有上升超过50米的可能性
Ricarda is one of Johan's colleagues,
‪里卡达是约翰的一位同事
and she studies how tipping points can interact.
‪她研究的是临界点如何相互影响
The important point to make here is that everything
‪这里要说明的重要一点是
in the Earth's system is connected.
‪地球系统中的所有事物‪都是相互关联的
If one part of the climate system
‪如果气候系统的一部分
crosses its tipping point,
‪越过了临界点
then that might make it more likely
‪那么系统中的其他部分
for other parts of the system to also cross their critical threshold,
‪也很有可能越过其关键临界值
so you can think of this in terms of dominoes.
‪你可以用多米诺骨牌来思考这个问题
If you tip one of them over,
‪如果你翻倒其中一个
then this might lead to a cascading effect.
‪那就可能会导致串联反应
What is clear is that with ongoing global warming,
‪显然 随着全球气候持续变暖
we're increasing the risk
‪我们正在增加
of crossing tipping points in the Earth's system.
‪越过地球系统临界点的风险
When we cross tipping points, we unleash irreversible changes
‪当我们越过临界点时‪我们就启动了不可逆转的变化
that would mean that the planet will go from our best friend
‪这就意味着‪这个星球将从我们最好的朋友
to a position where it dampens and reduces the stress,
‪变成抑制并降低压力的状态
sucking up carbon dioxide,
‪吸取二氧化碳
taking up heat, absorbing impacts,
‪吸取热量 并吸收冲击
and tipping over to a point where it could self-reinforce warming
‪同时翻转至能够‪自我强化变暖的那一点
and become a foe.
‪成为我们的敌人
The climate is, of course, being warmed by greenhouse gases,
‪当然 气候的变暖‪是由温室气体造成的
so it's in our emissions of these gases
‪因此正是因为排放这些气体
that we find a global tipping point.
‪让我们发现了全球的临界点
Since long before human beings appeared, the Earth's average temperature
‪早在人类出现之前
‪地球的平均温度就密切追踪
was closely tracking the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
‪大气中二氧化碳的浓度
During the Holocene,
‪在全新世时期
this concentration remained relatively steady,
‪这个浓度保持相对稳定
‪（时期 年份）
but that all changed with the Industrial Revolution.
‪但是工业革命改变了一切
In 1988, we passed 350 parts per million
‪1988年 我们向地球大气层
of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.
‪排放了百万分之350的二氧化碳
This was the moment we crossed the boundary.
‪这是我们越过界限的时刻
Ever since then, we've been at risk of triggering changes
‪从那时起 我们就面临着‪触发导致气候
that lead to runaway warming.
‪急速变暖变化的风险
You go past 350 PPM
‪如果大气中二氧化碳的浓度
in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,
‪超过了百万分之350
and you enter the danger zone.
‪地球就进入了危险区域
So 350 parts per million is the first of Johan's boundaries,
‪因此 百万分之350‪是约翰的第一道界限
and we're already well beyond it.
‪而我们已经超过了这一界限
Right now, we've reached a point of carbon dioxide concentration
‪目前 大气中二氧化碳的浓度
in the atmosphere of roughly 415 parts per million.
‪大约是百万分之415
We're starting to see the impacts of being
‪我们开始看到处于
in the middle of the danger zone in the climate boundary
‪气候界限危险区中间的影响
in terms of rising frequency of droughts,
‪包括旱灾、热浪和
and heatwaves, and floods,
‪洪水的频率增加
and accelerated melting of ice,
‪冰块加速消融
and accelerated thawing of permafrost, and higher frequency of forest fires.
‪冻土加速解冻以及‪森林火灾发生的频率加快
Up ahead is a second threshold.
‪上述这些是第二个临界值
We are rapidly approaching 450 parts per million carbon dioxide.
‪二氧化碳的浓度正在‪迅速接近百万分之450
The planetary boundary danger zone is defined
‪地球界限的危险区域
‪是由科学中的不确定度范围来定义的
by the uncertainty range in science.
Today, our assessment is that the uncertainty range in science
‪如今 我们的评定标准‪是科学中的不确定度范围
lies between 350 PPM,
‪在百万分之350之间
which is the boundary
‪这是安全区
between the safe zone and entering the danger zone,
‪与进入危险区域之间的界限
up to 450 PPM,
‪最高为百万分之450
which is when you exit the danger zone and go into a really high-risk zone.
‪这是离开危险区域‪进入高风险区域的当量
If we enter the high-risk zone,
‪考虑到临界点的迹象就在我们周围
irreversible tipping points become highly likely, if not inevitable,
‪如果我们进入高风险区域
and this is a conservative estimate,
‪如果并非不可避免
given that the signs of tipping points are all around us now.
‪很有可能出现不可逆转的临界点‪而这只是保守估计
In simple terms, the climate planetary boundary
‪简单来说 气候的地球界限
is equal to 1.5 degrees Celsius warming,
‪相当于升温1,5摄氏度
and it just provides all this evidence
‪它只是提供了所有这些证据
that we take a huge risk if we allow ourselves to go beyond 1.5.
‪如果我们允许自己超过1,5摄氏度
‪我们将承担巨大的风险
We are at 1.1, we're rapidly moving towards 1.5,
‪我们现在在1,1摄氏度‪正在迅速向1,5摄氏度迈进
and our only chance to stay within the planetary boundary on climate
‪我们留在气候的地球界限内的
‪唯一机会在于
is that we, you know,
reach a fossil-fuel-free world economy within the next 30 years.
‪我们在未来30年内‪实现无矿物燃料的世界经济
While that target for global temperature
‪虽然全球气温的目标‪可能占据了所有的头条新闻
may have grabbed all the headlines,
Johan knew that this was only one part of a bigger picture.
‪约翰知道 这只是大局的一部分
For our planet's stability relies on more than just its climate.
‪因为我们地球的稳定‪不单单依赖于气候
More research and evidence had to be brought forward
‪必须提出更多的研究和证据
to conclude that we also have four biosphere boundaries.
‪得出我们还有四个生物圈界限的结论
Boundaries that are in the living Earth.
‪这些是在生生不息的地球上的界限
These include the land configuration.
‪包括土地结构
How… How is the composition of biomes on Earth?
‪地球上的生物群落是如何构成的？
Er, the three rain forests, the temperate forest,
‪三个热带雨林、温带雨林
the boreal forest,
‪北方森林
the grasslands,
‪草原
the wetlands.
‪和湿地
Second is biodiversity.
‪其次是生物多样性
So all the species in water and on land.
‪水中和陆地上的所有物种
And then the third one, of course, the bloodstream, the hydrological cycle.
‪第三是命脉与水文循环
‪（淡水）
And then, finally, the injection of nutrients
‪最后是注入营养物质…
‪（营养物质）
that are fundamental for the functioning of the living biosphere.
‪…这些是现存生物圈与氮磷循环
The nitrogen and phosphorus cycles.
‪运作的基础
The first of the biosphere boundaries,
‪第一个生物圈边界‪是在地球上构成的栖息地
the composition of the habitats on Earth,
is concerned with how we are now transforming those natural habitats.
‪涉及到我们现在‪如何改造这些自然栖息地
We are fast approaching a major tipping point
‪在这个星球现存的一处最大荒野上
in one of the planet's largest remaining wildernesses.
‪我们正在迅速接近一个重大的临界点
The Amazon.
‪那就是亚马逊
Carlos Nobre has been studying
‪卡洛斯诺布雷几十年来
the rain forest's importance to our planet's stability for decades.
‪一直在研究雨林‪对我们星球稳定性的重要之处
He was the first to sound the alarm.
‪他是第一个拉响警报的人
I saw the Amazon in 1971-72 undisturbed.
‪（圣保罗大学高级研究所）
‪我看到亚马逊‪在1971到1972年间并未干扰
I saw the forest
‪我看到了森林
and the rivers.
‪还有河流
I would swim in the Rio Negro with the piranhas,
‪我与食人鱼一起在尼格罗河游泳
And nothing ever happened to me.
‪我从没出过任何事
Since that time, large swathes of Amazon have been cleared
‪从那时起 亚马逊的大片土地被开垦
for livestock and soya farming.
‪为畜牧业和大豆种植业提供场地
Carlos has discovered that this is pushing us closer
‪卡洛斯发现 这正促使我们
to triggering irreversible change across much of what remains.
‪在剩下的大部分地区‪触发不可逆转的改变
In 1998, we began the largest scientific experiment
‪1998年 我们开始在热带雨林中
ever conducted in a tropical rain forest.
‪进行有史以来最大的科学实验
Many towers were built in the rain forest
‪当时在雨林里建了很多座塔
to study how it creates its own climate.
‪研究森林如何创造自己的气候
The data shows large parts of the rain forest are drying out.
‪数据显示 大部分雨林正在枯竭
In the Amazon,
‪在亚马逊 旱季最多持续三个月
the dry season lasts a maximum of three months.
But with global warming
‪但是从20世纪80年代开始
and also forest degradation, due to human activities,
‪随着全球变暖
in particular, livestock and soya farming,
‪还有人类活动造成的森林退化
the dry season has become six days longer
‪特别是畜牧业和大豆种植
each decade since the 1980s.
‪旱季延长了六天
As the forest is reduced and fragmented,
‪随着森林的减少和破坏
its ability to recycle water
‪它的循环用水
and generate rain into the dry season is diminished.
‪和在旱季产生雨水的能力减弱了
If the dry season becomes longer than four months,
‪如果旱季变长超过四个月
the jungle trees die and are replaced by savanna.
‪丛林树木会死去‪取而代之的会是草原
A process called savannization.
‪这个过程称为稀树草原化
There are signs that parts of the Amazon are already changing.
‪有迹象表明 亚马逊的‪部分地区已经在发生变化
If deforestation goes above 20 to 25% of the forest,
‪如果森林砍伐量‪超过森林面积的20％到25％
with global warming increasing,
‪随着全球变暖
we are likely to experience an irreversible process of savannization
‪我们很可能会经历‪不可逆转的稀树草原化过程
that could affect 50 to 60% of the entire Amazon forest.
‪可能影响整个亚马逊森林的‪50％到60％
We have already lost close to 20% of the Amazon rain forest.
‪我们已经失去了近20％的亚马逊雨林
We could be about to tip the Amazon from planetary friend to planetary foe.
‪我们可能要把亚马逊
‪从地球的朋友变成地球的敌人
‪当丛林变成草原 许多树会死去
As the jungle turns to savanna, many trees die,
and carbon is released into the atmosphere.
‪并将碳排放到大气中
Carlos has calculated the Amazon could release
‪卡洛斯曾计算过 亚马逊在未来30年
200 billion tons over the next 30 years.
‪将排放2000亿吨碳
That's equivalent to all the carbon emitted worldwide
‪这相当于过去5年里
for the past five years.
‪全球碳排放总量
We are very, very close to the tipping point.
‪我们现在非常接近临界点
Are we concerned about fighting the climate crisis?
‪我们是否关心应对气候危机的问题？
Are we, er, concerned about keeping the carbon in the forest?
‪我们是否关心把碳留在森林里
Or "I don't care"?
‪还是“我不在乎”？
There is reason to be deeply concerned at this point.
‪在这种时候 我们有理由深感忧虑
We're still expanding agricultural land into natural ecosystems.
‪我们还在把农业用地‪扩大到自然生态系统
We are still cutting down the rain forest
‪我们对于雨林砍伐的速度
at a pace that puts the whole system at risk.
‪仍在危及整个系统
And it's not just the rain forests.
‪而且不仅仅是雨林
Trees of every description are invaluable in maintaining planetary stability.
‪各式各样的树木对于维持‪这个星球的稳定性都是极其宝贵的
So much so that a loss of just 25% of the world's forest cover
‪以至于世界森林覆盖率只损失25%
risks triggering catastrophic tipping points.
‪就有可能触发灾难性的临界点
But we have already cleared almost 40%.
‪但是我们已经砍伐掉了近40％的森林
We are well into the danger zone for this boundary.
‪我们已经进入了这个界限的危险区域
A second major consequence of deforestation
‪砍伐森林的第二个主要后果‪是丧失自然界的
is a loss of biodiversity.
Of nature.
‪生物多样性
Biodiversity is the second of the biosphere boundaries,
‪生物多样性是生物圈的第二条界限
because it underpins our own ability to thrive on Earth.
‪因为它支撑着我们自己‪在地球上蓬勃发展的能力
But we are not treating it well.
‪但是我们没有好好对待它
Nature is being degraded at a rate and a scale
‪自然界正在以一定的速度和规模退化
‪（安妮拉里格多丽博士‪生物多样性和生态系统平台）
that is unprecedented, er, in human history.
‪这在人类历史上是史无前例的
Anne Larigauderie is an ecologist alarmed by the growing flood of evidence.
‪安妮拉里格多丽是位生态学家
‪对日益增多的证据感到震惊
Everywhere around the world, nature is in decline.
‪在世界各地
‪自然界都在衰退
One million of species of plants and animals
‪全世界估计共有
out of an estimated total of eight million
‪800万种动植物
‪有100万种濒临灭绝
are threatened with extinction.
If we continue with this negative trend,
‪如果我们继续保持这种负面趋势
we might be headed towards a sixth mass extinction.
‪我们可能会走向第六次大灭绝
‪在短短50年间
In just 50 years,
humanity has wiped out 68% of global wildlife populations.
‪人类已经消灭了‪全球68%的野生动物种群
It's clear that we are in the midst of a biodiversity crisis.
‪显然 我们正处在生物多样性危机中
Losing all of this fabric of life,
‪失去了所有的生命构造
all of this biodiversity, is threatening our own life on Earth.
‪以及所有的生物多样性‪正威胁着我们自己在地球上的生命
With current negative trends in biodiversity,
‪由于目前生物多样性的消极趋势
we are not going to be able to feed the planet.
‪我们将无法养活这个星球
For that, you need nature that functions well.
‪为此 我们需要正常运行的大自然
For Johan, it was a story close to home
‪对于约翰来说 这个近在眼前的故事
that really hit him.
‪真正触动了他
I opened the newspaper and read this story about UK scientists coming over to Sweden
‪我打开报纸 看到了一则新闻
and stealing, you know, short-haired bumblebee queens.
‪英国科学家来瑞典偷短毛熊蜂蜂后
And it read like they had, you know, sneaked over at night
‪他们好像是晚上偷偷溜进来的
and basically snatched these hundred bumblebee queens
‪大概抓走了上百只熊蜂蜂后
to bring them back into the UK
‪把它们带回了英国
and to basically save what they had been destroying.
‪想要拯救被他们毁掉的环境
Across Europe, short-haired bumblebees
‪在整个欧洲 短毛熊峰
are key pollinators for food crops.
‪是粮食作物关键的传粉者
But by the 1990s, they had been classed as extinct in the UK.
‪但到了20世纪90年代‪它们在英国被认定为已灭绝
Here, we have, you know, a country that feels forced to go to another country
‪在这里 我们有一个国家
‪被迫去另一个国家
and then steal back some of its pollinators
‪偷回一些传粉昆虫
to have a functioning ecosystem.
‪希望能有个正常运作的生态系统
That's a… Then, you know, to me personally,
‪这是一个… 对我个人来说
that was a moment of, er, of realization that
‪那一刻我真正意识到了
this is serious.
‪问题的严重性
‪全世界约有70％的农作物种类
Around 70% of the world's crop species
rely to some extent on insect pollination.
‪在某种程度上依赖昆虫授粉
But the expansion of intensive monoculture is leading
‪但是集约化单一耕作的扩大
to a drastic decline in insects.
‪导致了昆虫数量锐减
The irony is that our global production of food is,
‪讽刺的是 我们的全球粮食生产
in essence,
‪从本质上来说
wiping out the very thing our food production relies on.
‪是在消灭我们粮食生产所依赖的东西
It was not only proof of one of the fundamentals
‪这不仅证明了生物多样性研究的
in biodiversity research,
‪一个基本原理‪那就是我们需要保护生物多样性
which is that biodiversity is not something
we need to protect just because of the beauty
‪不是因为我们人类这个物种
or some kind of moral responsibility from one species, humans,
‪需要基于另一个动、植物物种的美‪或者某种道德责任
to another species like flora and fauna.
‪而保护它们
Oh no, it's the toolbox for the functioning of our societies.
‪并不是这样 而是因为‪它们是我们社会运转的工具箱
It is a fundamental piece of the puzzle
‪这是解决谜题的基本要素
to make food production, clean air, clean water,
‪使食物生产、清洁空气、清洁水源
carbon sequestration, nutrient recycling, to work.
‪碳固存和营养物循环发挥作用
Scientists have tried to calculate the benefits that insects provide
‪科学家们试图计算出
‪昆虫仅仅通过大量的日常活动
simply by going about their daily business in large numbers,
‪就能带来的好处
each kind providing a subtly different service.
‪每种都提供了有细微差异的不同服务
But their value is mostly incalculable until suddenly…
‪但是它们的价值大都不可估量‪直到突然之间…
they're gone.
‪它们都消失了
A planet without insects is not a functioning planet.
‪没有昆虫的星球不是正常运行的星球
And, of course, the decline is not just confined to insects.
‪当然衰退不只局限在昆虫身上
Wildlife has been squeezed out
‪随着农业遍及地球上大部分宜居土地
as our agriculture has expanded across much of Earth's habitable land.
‪野生动物的生存空间‪被挤压得所剩无几
Today, of all the birds on Earth, only 30% are wild.
‪如今 地球上所有的鸟类中
‪只有30%是野生的
And of all the mammals on the planet,
‪这个星球上所有的哺乳动物
wild species now make up, by weight, only 4%.
‪按重量来计 目前野生物种仅占4%
So where is the boundary for biodiversity?
‪生物多样性的界限在哪里？
How much more of the natural world can we afford to lose
‪在我们自己的社会崩塌之前
‪我们还能承受多少自然界的损失？
before our own societies collapse?
There are many different tipping points in the natural world,
‪自然界中
‪有很多不同的临界点
and it's difficult to translate concretely
‪因为生命非常复杂
the planetary boundary when it comes to biodiversity,
‪当涉及到生物多样性时
because life is very complicated.
‪很难把地球界限具体化
A single boundary for the loss of nature
‪因为大自然的复杂性‪大自然丧失的单一界限
may be hard to pinpoint because of nature's complexity,
‪可能很难界定
but one thing is clear.
‪但有一点是明确的
We've already crossed well beyond it.
‪我们已经越过了这个界限
We are so deep in the red.
‪我们深陷在赤字之中
We are in such a dangerous point
‪当地球上的物种消失
when it comes to losing species on Earth and destroying ecosystems on Earth
‪地球上的生态系统遭到破坏‪我们面临着如此危险的时刻
that we have to halt the loss of biodiversity
‪我们必须尽快阻止
as quickly as we ever can.
‪生物多样性的丧失
Now is the time to set as a target
‪现在要把它设为
for 2021, 2022,
‪2021和2022年的目标
I mean really at the early parts of this decade,
‪在这十年的早期
that we must aim at a zero loss of nature.
‪我们必须把大自然零损失作为目标
The equivalent of 1.5 degrees Celsius maximum allowed warming
‪相当于1,5摄氏度的‪最大允许升温幅度
would be zero loss of nature from now onwards.
‪将从现在开始将为大自然零损失
The third biosphere boundary relates to the planet's bloodstream,
‪第三条生物圈界限与行星的命脉有关
for fresh water is another of the fundamentals
‪因为淡水是社会赖以生存的
that society depends on.
‪另一个基本要素
Did you know that you and I need roughly
‪你知不知道你和我
something like 3,000 liters of fresh water per person every day for us to stay alive?
‪每人每天大概需要3000升淡水
‪来维持生命吗？
And you say, "My God, 3,000 liters? Three tons of water? How can that be?"
‪你会说：“天啊 3000升水？‪那就是3吨水？怎么可能？”
Yes, we only need 50 liters for hygiene and drinking.
‪没错 我们只需要50升水‪用于个人卫生和饮用
We, in the rich world, use roughly another hundred
‪在富裕的世界里‪我们大概还需要100升
for washing, our household needs.
‪用于洗涤和家庭需要
And then industry needs another 150, so that's like 300 liters.
‪还需要150升用于工业‪这些大约是300升
But the rest, the 2,500 or so, is for food.
‪但是剩下的2500多升用在了食物上
That's the fresh water we need to produce everything that we have on our plates
‪当我们吃食物时‪我们需要淡水来生产
when we eat our food.
‪盘子里的一切东西
Fresh water has a special significance for Johan.
‪淡水对约翰有特殊的意义
It was the subject of his PhD
‪这是他攻读博士学位
and many years of research in the semi-arid regions of Africa.
‪以及在非洲半干旱地区‪进行多年研究的课题
I spent from, you know, sunrise to sunset walking around, sweating like crazy,
‪我从日出到日落
‪走来走去 汗流浃背
collecting data, you know.
‪收集数据
Digging profiles in the soil,
‪挖掘土壤剖面
taking soil samples, doing soil moisture measurements.
‪采集土壤样本 并进行土壤水分测量
Just getting wind speed data and rainfall data.
‪获取风速数据和降雨量数据
I've measured so much leaf area.
‪我测量过很多叶片面积‪你都无法想象
You don't, you won't imagine, you know,
how careful a scientist has to be in just measuring in square millimeters
‪科学家以平方毫米为单位‪测量一株植物上所有叶片的尺寸
the size of all the leaves on a plant.
‪会有多么小心
It was the details he needed to answer a much bigger question.
‪他需要这些细节来回答更大的问题
How much water do we need to feed the world?
‪那就是‪我们需要多少水来养活这个世界？
My tentative answer when I was doing my MSc was,
‪我在读理科硕士时的初步回答是
was that, "Yes, there seemed to be enough water."
‪“没错 那里似乎有足够的水”
But there's another side to the coin.
‪但是 凡事都有两面性
Is there a global threshold for fresh water use
‪淡水的使用是否有整体阈值
beyond which the system starts to collapse?
‪超过这个阈值系统就会开始崩塌？
We actually scanned off all the river basins in the world
‪我们扫描了世界上所有的流域
and then, you know, defining what's the minimum amount of runoff water
‪然后
‪定义了任何特定流域
‪为维持系统的湿润度
any given river basin must have to maintain the wetness in the system
‪所必备的最低径流水量
so that you have thriving ecosystems,
‪这样就会得到蓬勃发展的生态系统
good supply of water, functioning river basins.
‪充足的水源充足以及良好运作的水域
The volume of water currently being extracted from each river
‪目前 从每条河中抽取的水量
reveals why many are now in danger of running dry.
‪揭示了为什么现在‪很多河流有干涸的危险
Globally, we're still, as far as our assessment shows today,
‪在全球范围内‪就我们如今的评估来看
in the safe zone on fresh water,
‪我们依然处于淡水安全区域
but we're rapidly moving towards a danger zone.
‪但是我们正迅速向危险区域移动
The last of the biosphere boundaries
‪最后一条生物圈界限
involves the flow of nutrients, nitrogen, and phosphorus.
‪涉及到营养物、氮和磷的流动
They are the essential components of all living things,
‪它们是所有生物的基本组成部分
the key ingredients in fertilizers.
‪也是肥料的关键成分
Johan has witnessed firsthand the impacts of their increasing use.
‪约翰亲眼目睹了‪增加使用量带来的影响
He spent his childhood summers on an island in the Baltic Sea.
‪他在波罗的海的一个小岛上‪度过了童年的夏天
We loved fishing.
‪我们喜欢钓鱼
Most often, I fished with my closest friend here, Anders,
‪我经常跟我最亲密的朋友安德斯
and my little brother Nicklaus. And…
‪还有我弟弟尼克劳斯一起钓鱼‪而且…
So there was often the three of us.
‪所以我们三个几乎经常
Almost being able to tell my mother and dad that,
‪问我父母
"So you want some fish for dinner?"
‪“晚餐你想吃点鱼吗？”
and we would come home with a catch, basically.
‪基本上我们回家时都会有收获
One of the adventures was going out
‪其中一次冒险
one, two nautical miles out in the open Baltic,
‪是在开阔的波罗的海一、二海里之外
and that's where we could, by hand, fishing cod.
‪我们可以在那里徒手抓鳕鱼
I was, at that time, the best at rinsing the fish,
‪我当时最擅长洗鱼
so, after one hour, I had to abandon the fishing,
‪一小时后 我不得不放弃钓鱼
because we got so much cod that the only way to bring it home
‪因为我们捕到特别多鳕鱼
was that we would actually cut up the fish on site.
‪把它们带回家的唯一办法‪是在现场杀鱼
So we would have the seagulls just engulfing us,
‪海鸥都快把我们吞没了
because there was so much, er, you know, entrails
‪因为有那么多
‪内脏和鱼块 我会把它们切下来
and then pieces of fish that I was then cutting off
just to fit in the boat.
‪装进船中
And that was a cause of great, great excitement as a kid to do that.
‪作为小孩子 这样做是非常兴奋的
A few decades later, today, it's a completely different situation,
‪几十年后的今天 情况完全不同了
and you see nobody trying to go out to catch cod,
‪你会发现 没有人去捕鳕鱼
because, er, it's just literally empty.
‪因为它们在这儿几乎绝迹了
It looks exactly the same, by the way, as it did in the 1970s, 1980s
‪顺便说一句 当你从上面看时‪它看起来与20世纪70、80年代
when you look at it from above,
‪完全一样
but when you look at it from below, it's something completely different.
‪但是如果你从下面看时‪它就完全不同了
When Johan was a boy, the Baltic was a healthy environment
‪在约翰小时候 波罗的海‪是以鳕鱼等掠食性鱼类为主的
dominated by predatory fish like cod.
‪健康环境
But while overfishing removed many of the fish,
‪但是虽然过度捕捞导致许多鱼类死亡
it was fertilizers washed off the surrounding fields
‪正是从周围农田冲刷下来的肥料
that tipped the Baltic into disaster.
‪使波罗的海陷入了灾难
It's now the world's most polluted sea.
‪它现在是世界上污染最严重的海洋
It is when you have many Baltic Sea equivalents across the planet
‪当这个星球上有很多‪跟波罗的海类似的地方时
that there is reason for deep concern,
‪我们有理由深切关注
because it's a…
‪因为这是个信号
It's a signal that the entire planet is gradually losing its resilience
‪表明整个星球
‪正在失去恢复能力‪而且渐渐变得越来越弱
and gradually becoming weaker and weaker.
Elena Bennett is an expert on the impacts of fertilizers.
‪埃琳娜贝内特是研究肥料影响的专家
We take nitrogen out of the air and chemically convert it
‪我们从空气中提取氮气‪通过化学方法
into a form that is able to be used by plants,
‪将其转化为能被植物利用的形式
or, in the case of phosphorus, we dig it up out of the ground.
‪或者 就磷而言‪我们把它从地下挖出来
We mine it.
‪我们把它开采出来
We developed these chemical pathways or ways to mine phosphorus
‪我们开发了化学途径或方法‪对磷进行开采
that were much, much more efficient,
‪这些是更有效的做法
and that basically doubled, tripled,
‪基本上使世界各地
or even quadrupled the production of food around the world.
‪食物生产增加了
‪两倍、三倍 甚至四倍
This was invaluable in feeding a growing population,
‪这对养活不断增长的人口‪是非常宝贵的
but we got into the habit of applying far more fertilizer
‪但我们养成了施用更多肥料的习惯
than the crops could actually use.
‪这远远多于作物实际的施用量
The unused nutrients wash into rivers,
‪未使用的营养物质被冲入河流
over-fertilizing them too.
‪使得河流也过量施肥
A process called eutrophication.
‪这个过程称为“富营养化”
What we see are these algal blooms.
‪我们看到的是这些藻华
Sort of looks like a blue-green scum on top of the lake.
‪它看起来像是湖顶上的蓝绿色浮渣
They often smell terrible
‪它们的气味通常很难闻
because we're smelling the rotting of that algae.
‪因为我们闻到的是藻类腐烂的味道
As it's decomposing, it uses up oxygen.
‪它在腐烂时会消耗氧气
Reduced oxygen changes the chemical composition
‪减少的氧气会改变了
of the sediment on the bottom of the lake, causing it to release more phosphorus.
‪湖底沉积物的化学成分‪导致它释放出更多的磷
Soon as you have a eutrophication problem,
‪一旦出现了富营养化问题‪湖水会这样想
the lake sort of says,
"Oh good, we're gonna make it worse,"
‪“很好 我们会把情况弄得更糟”
and it just creates a positive feedback cycle
‪它就创造了一个正反馈循环
that creates more and more and more phosphorus
‪这会产生越来越多的磷
going into that lake and essentially keeps it in that state.
‪进入湖中‪并从根本上使其保持这种状态
We also have the same issue of eutrophication in oceans,
‪我们在海洋中
‪也有同样的富营养化问题
where we get what are called dead zones from the same nutrients,
‪我们从同样的营养物质中
‪得到所谓的死亡区
and we see those dead zones now
‪在全世界几百个地方
in a few hundred places around the world.
‪都能看到死亡区
Eutrophication in the ocean may have been an important contributor
‪海洋中的富营养化可能是导致世界上
to one of the world's five previous mass extinction events.
‪前五次大灭绝事件之一的重要因素
Already today, some dead zones have expanded
‪如今
‪一些死亡区已经扩大到
to cover tens of thousands of square kilometers.
‪覆盖数万平方公里
Our overuse of phosphorus and nitrogen
‪我们对磷和氮的过度使用
is one of the least known, but most critical impacts
‪是我们对生物圈造成的最不为人知
we're having on the biosphere.
‪但又最关键的影响之一
We are already deep into the danger zone.
‪我们已经深陷危险区域了
We are well across the nutrient boundary.
‪我们已经越过营养物质界限了
It's… It's not a thing that we think about very often.
‪这不是我们会经常想到的事
I think we need to be taking this boundary much more seriously than we currently are.
‪我认为我们需要比现在‪更加认真地对待这个边界
Nutrients, water, our forests, biodiversity, and the climate.
‪营养物质、水、我们的森林
‪生物多样性和气候
Five big components of our planet that regulate stability
‪是我们的星球调节稳定性
‪以及支撑我们自身生存的
and underpin our own survival.
‪五大要素
But Johan and his colleagues knew that this still wasn't the full picture.
‪但是约翰和他的同事‪知道这还不是全部
They hadn't yet accounted for a little-known drama
‪他们还没有考虑到正在海洋中上演的
that's playing out in the oceans.
‪一场鲜为人知的戏剧性事件
Its impact on our planet's stability could outplay all others.
‪它对我们星球稳定性的影响‪可能会超过所有其它影响
When we emit CO2 into the atmosphere,
‪当我们把二氧化碳排入大气时
about a third of that emissions has ended up in the ocean.
‪大约三分之一最终进入了海洋
Terry Hughes has been a close collaborator with Johan
‪特里休斯多年来
‪一直与约翰密切合作
over many years.
That has changed the chemistry of the ocean.
‪这已经改变了海洋的化学成分
It has changed the pH
‪它已经改变了酸碱度
and made it less alkaline, or more acidic.
‪使其碱性降低或酸性增强
Hence the name "ocean acidification."
‪因此被称为 "海洋酸化"
When carbon dioxide dissolves in water,
‪当二氧化碳在水中溶解时
it creates carbonic acid.
‪产生了碳酸
The vulnerability is in colder waters.
‪较冷的水域有其脆弱性
Over the past few decades,
‪在过去的几十年间
the world's ocean has become 26% more acidic,
‪世界海洋的酸度增加了26％
and, for as long as carbon dioxide concentrations
‪只要大气中的二氧化碳
in the atmosphere remain high,
‪浓度依然很高
the ocean will continue acidifying.
‪海洋就会继续酸化
The acid reacts with chemicals in the water called carbonate ions,
‪酸与水中被称为碳酸离子的‪化学物质发生反应
reducing their concentration.
‪降低它们的浓度
It affects a broad suite of organisms,
‪它会影响到各种各样的生物体
particularly those that need
‪特别是那些需要碳酸盐
carbonate to grow their skeletons.
‪让骨骼生长的生物体
Things like mollusks, oysters, mussels.
‪像是软体动物、牡蛎和蚌类
Ocean acidification has an ominous history.
‪海洋酸化有一段不祥的历史
Global changes in the acidification,
‪海洋酸化和酸碱度的
the pH of the ocean, can actually cause mass extinctions.
‪全球性变化实际上‪会导致大规模物种灭绝
We've seen that repeatedly in the geological record.
‪我们在地质记录中‪多次看到了这种情况
So as we manipulate
‪因此 当我们在操纵
the planet's climate, we're literally playing with fire
‪这个星球的气候时‪我们实际上是在玩火
in terms of the unforeseen consequences
‪因为越过这些地球界限
of moving past these planetary boundaries into uncharted territory.
‪进入未知的领域
‪会造成不可预见的后果
‪我们仍然处于海洋酸化的安全区域
We are still in the safe zone for ocean acidification,
but we're pushing towards the danger zone
‪但是我们正在向危险区域推进
and potentially a catastrophic mass extinction.
‪并有可能发生灾难性的大规模灭绝
For all the complexities of Earth,
‪对于地球上所有的复杂情况
Johan and his colleagues discovered that there are just nine systems
‪约翰和他的同事发现‪只有九个系统
that keep our planet stable.
‪能让我们的星球维持稳定
But they've not yet identified where the boundaries lie for two of them.
‪但是他们还没有确定
‪这两者之间的界限在哪里
The first one is an assortment of human-made pollutants.
‪第一个是人为制造的各种污染物
We call it "novel entities," and it is everything from nuclear waste
‪我们称之为“ 新实体”‪涵盖的东西应有尽有
‪核废料到持久性有机污染物
to persistent organic pollutants
to loading of heavy metals
‪到重金属含量
to microplastics.
‪再到微塑料
Humans have created 100,000 new materials,
‪人类创造了10万种新材料
any number of which could interact with the environment in catastrophic ways.
‪其中任何一种都可能‪以灾难性的方式与环境相互影响
As of yet, this boundary is not quantified.
‪到目前为止 这个界限还没有被量化
We simply don't know the long-term or cumulative impacts
‪我们只是不知道
‪这些污染物质的长期或累积性影响
of these polluting substances.
But most have the potential to cause planet-wide disruption
‪但如果不以某种方式加以控制
if not controlled in some way.
‪大多数都可能造成全球范围内的破坏
There's one form of pollutant that is already having a global impact.
‪有一种形式的污染物‪已经对全球造成了影响
So much so that it has a boundary of its own.
‪以致于它有了自己的界限
Aerosols are basically particles in the atmosphere.
‪气溶胶基本上是大气中的颗粒物
They are what's called air pollution particulates.
‪它们就是所谓的空气污染颗粒物
‪（气溶胶）
75% of the aerosol pollution is from fossil fuel combustion.
‪75％的气溶胶污染来自化石燃料燃烧
We see them as hazy sky,
‪我们把它们看成是朦胧的天空
because they intercept sunlight and just scatter it like mirrors.
‪因为它们拦截阳光‪然后像镜子一样把阳光散射开来
‪它们造成了所谓的"全球变暗现象"
And they cause what's called "global dimming."
Veerabhadran has spent a lifetime studying the air around and above us.
‪维拉布哈德兰一生都在研究
‪我们周围和上方的空气
The other way aerosols impact climate,
‪气溶胶对气候影响的另一种方式
because you're cutting sunlight, which is the major energy source
‪因为你在阻断阳光‪这个驱动地球温度的
for driving the temperature of the planet, these aerosols have caused some cooling.
‪主要能源‪而这些气溶胶造成了一些降温
When you hear climate scientists like me say that aerosols are cooling the planet
‪当你听到像我这样的气候科学家说‪气溶胶正在给这个星球降温
and mask the warming, you may think, "That's a good thing."
‪并且掩盖了升温‪你可能会想：“这是件好事”
But unfortunately, it's not.
‪但不幸的是 这不是件好事
Because of this masking,
‪因为这种掩盖
we are still not seeing the full greenhouse beast.
‪我们依然没有看到温室怪兽的全貌
This cooling effect from aerosols is masking
‪气溶胶的冷却效应正在掩盖
about 40% of the effects of global warming.
‪全球变暖约40%的影响
And it comes at a high price.
‪而这需要付出高昂的代价
Air pollution kills over seven million people every year
‪空气污染每年造成700多万人死亡
and takes, on average, three years off the life expectancy of each one of us.
‪并让我们所有人的平均预期寿命
‪减少三年
Where the boundary for air pollution lies
‪空气污染的界限还没有科学判定
has not yet been scientifically determined.
Just based on the 7.5 million deaths by these particles,
‪仅仅根据这些颗粒物
‪造成750万人死亡这个事实 可以说
I would say we have already crossed the boundary
‪我们已经越过了气溶胶的界限
as far as aerosols are concerned.
Finally, the ninth boundary is the ozone layer.
‪最后 第九条界限是臭氧层
It has the unique distinction of being the only boundary
‪它的独特之处在于 它是我们朝着
where we're moving in the right direction.
‪正确方向前进的唯一界限
The ozone intercepts harmful ultraviolet radiation,
‪臭氧会拦截有害的紫外线辐射
‪紫外线辐射会直接影响
which directly impacts our DNA
‪我们的DNA‪并导致诸如皮肤癌的致命疾病
and causes deadly diseases like skin cancer.
That is why,
‪这就是为什么20世纪80年代
when the Antarctic ozone hole was discovered in the 1980s,
‪在南极洲发现臭氧层空洞时
there was a global panic.
‪出现了全球性的恐慌
The discovery of the ozone hole
‪臭氧层空洞
caused by chemical pollutants being released into the atmosphere
‪是由释放到大气中的‪化学污染物造成的
persuaded nations to phase out these chemicals.
‪这一发现说服‪各国逐步淘汰了这些化学品
It was quite fantastic how the scientific warnings
‪把科学警告转化为政治行动
translated into political action.
‪真的很神奇
This is the first and only example
‪这是第一个 也是唯一一个例子
that we can actually manage the whole planet.
‪证明我们可以真正管理好整个星球
We can actually return into a safe operating space
‪我们实际上可以回到‪地球界限的安全运行空间
for a planetary boundary that we had seriously gone into the high-risk zone,
‪因为我们真的已经
‪进入了高风险区
and we returned back into a safe operating space.
‪然后我们又回到了安全运行空间
It was indeed fantastic to witness.
‪这的确是神奇的见证
Scientists raised the alarm, and the world acted.
‪科学家们发出了警报‪而世界也采取了行动
Thanks to Johan and his colleagues,
‪感谢约翰与他的同事
we now know the planet has nine boundaries
‪我们现在知道这个星球有九条界限
and the risks we face by crossing them.
‪以及我们越过它们所面临的风险
Together with the ozone layer, we are, at least for now,
‪加上臭氧层 我们至少现在
within the safe zone for ocean acidification and fresh water.
‪处于海洋酸化和淡水的安全区域内
We don't yet know how close we are to the danger zone for air pollution,
‪我们还不知道距离空气污染‪或所有其它污染物
‪这些新型实体的危险区域有多远
or for all the other pollutants, the novel entities.
But most worryingly, we have already exceeded
‪但是最令人担心的是‪我们已经越过了
at least four of the nine boundaries.
‪九条界限中至少四条
Climate, forest loss, nutrients, and biodiversity.
‪它们是气候、森林流失‪营养物质和生物多样性
We are now crossing irreversible tipping points,
‪我们现在正在越过不可逆转的临界点
and we are perilously close to tipping the Earth
‪我们正在冒着危险接近‪让地球进入无法支持
into a state that is unable to support our own civilizations.
‪我们自身文明的状态
What we're seeing in the world today verifies the planetary boundary framework.
‪我们今天所看到的‪证实了地球界限框架
We can see so clear evidence that,
‪我们可以看到很明显的证据
because we're in the danger zone on climate,
‪因为我们处在气候的危险区域
because we're in the deep high-risk zone on biodiversity loss,
‪因为我们处在生物多样性丧失的
‪深度高危区
we start seeing increased drought, impacts on the rain forest,
‪我们开始看到日益增多的旱灾‪对雨林的影响
the forest fires in Australia and in the Amazon,
‪澳大利亚与亚马逊的森林火灾
the accelerated ice melt, the collapse of coral reef systems.
‪加速的冰层消融‪以及珊瑚礁系统的崩塌
‪对于见证地球这些变化的科学家而言
For the scientists bearing witness to these planetary changes,
the loss is much more than just numbers.
‪损失的不仅仅只是数字
Terry Hughes has spent a lifetime studying coral reefs.
‪特里休斯一生致力于研究珊瑚礁
A bleached coral is very, very sick.
‪白化的珊瑚病得很厉害
Corals bleach when the waters around them get too warm,
‪当珊瑚周围的水温过高时‪就会发生白化现象
something that's happening with increasing frequency and intensity
‪作为全球变暖的结果
as a consequence of global warming.
‪这种情况发生的频率和强度与日俱增
In big thermal extremes, like we've been seeing
‪在极端高温下 就像我们最近几十年
during mass bleaching events in recent decades,
‪在大规模白化事件中看到的那样
they can actually die very, very quickly.
‪它们会很快死去
They cook.
‪它们遭到了高温破坏
‪白化事件的足迹比最极端的第五类
The footprint of a bleaching event is ten times bigger
than the most extreme Category 5 tropical cyclone.
‪热带气旋大十倍
So they're off the scale in terms of the size of the impact,
‪所以就影响的大小和发生的频率而言
‪它们已经超出了设定范围
and in terms of how frequently they are occurring.
Terry studies the Great Barrier Reef,
‪特里对世界上最大的珊瑚礁系统
the largest reef system in the world.
‪大堡礁进行了研究
Bleaching events used to be localized and rare,
‪白化事件曾经是局部性的‪而且很罕见
but over the past two decades,
‪但是在过去的20年间
marine heatwaves have caused widespread bleaching.
‪海洋热浪造成了广泛的白化现象
Three of the five biggest bleaching events have occurred in the past five years.
‪在过去五年里
‪发生了五起最大白化事件中的三起
We're worried about that shrinking gap
‪我们对两次白化事件之间
between one bleaching event and the next one.
‪不断缩小的间隔深感忧虑
We've already seen back-to-back bleaching events
‪我们已经看到大堡礁‪在2016和2017年
occur for the first time on the Great Barrier Reef
‪连续两个夏天 第一次发生了
in two consecutive summers in 2016 and 2017.
‪连续白化事件
Those gaps are critically important if the corals are to recover.
‪那些间隔对珊瑚的恢复非常重要
Half the reef's corals have already died.
‪珊瑚礁的一半珊瑚已经死亡
Terry's work involves conducting aerial surveys
‪特里的工作包括进行航空测量
to record the extent of each bleaching event.
‪记录每次白化事件的程度
When we do our aerial surveys, we fly as slowly as we can,
‪当我们进行航空测量时
‪我们尽可能飞得很慢
as low as we can, so we can see individual corals,
‪也尽可能飞得很低‪这样我们就能看到单个珊瑚
and we can assess how many of them are bleached white or not.
‪我们可以评估其中‪有多少白化或未白化的珊瑚
All the coral's bleached.
‪所有珊瑚均已白化
Yeah, that's bad.
‪是的 很糟糕
You can actually see a bleached reef from kilometers away,
‪你可以在几公里外‪看到一片白化的珊瑚礁
because it virtually glows.
‪因为它会发光‪上面有很多白色的珊瑚
There's so much white coral on it.
So I've got very broad crest, and just about everything's bleached.
‪我在非常开阔的高处‪看到几乎所有珊瑚都白化了
Those surveys have now been done five times,
‪现在那些测量已经进行了五次
and I have led three of those.
‪我领导了其中的三次
The last three in 2016, 2017, and 2020.
‪最后三次是在2016年‪2017年和2020年进行的
It's, um…
‪这是我希望自己永远不必做的工作
It's a job I'd hoped I'd never have to do,
because it's actually, um, very confronting.
‪因为威胁近在眼前
Sorry.
‪抱歉
We're heading for a future in which the Great Barrier Reef
‪我们正在走向
‪大堡礁成为
is a coral graveyard.
‪珊瑚墓场的未来
The climate modelers are telling us, the biologists,
‪气候模型专家告诉我们
‪这些生物学家
that business-as-usual carbon emissions
‪一切照旧的碳排放
will result in back-to-back bleaching events
‪到本世纪末‪将会导致在每个连续的夏天
every consecutive summer by the end of this century.
‪发生连续的白化事件
We've gone past the tipping point for coral bleaching.
‪我们已经越过了珊瑚白化的临界点
Scientists and ecologists like myself
‪像我这样的科学家和生态学家
have been talking for decades now about global warming,
‪几十年来一直在谈论全球变暖的问题
and it has been frustrating, um, that we haven't been listened to.
‪令人沮丧的是 我们的意见未被听取
I get angry.
‪我感到愤怒
I don't get depressed. I get angry.
‪我并不感到郁闷 我感到愤怒
There is a real reason to be frustrated,
‪确实有理由沮丧
because the science is clear
‪因为科学证据是明确的
and has been communicated for the past 30 years,
‪而且在过去的30年间一直在沟通
and still we're not moving in the right direction.
‪但是我们依然没有迈向正确的方向
I want you to panic.
‪我想要你们感到恐慌
I want you to feel the fear I feel every day.
‪我想要你们能感受到‪我每天的恐惧
And then I want you to act.
‪我想要你们采取措施
I want you to act as you would in a crisis.
‪我想要你们像在危机中那样采取措施
I want you to act as if the house was on fire.
‪我想要你们如同房子着了火那样‪采取措施
Because it is.
‪因为就是这样
The bush fires in Australia have raged for months,
‪澳大利亚的森林大火‪已经持续了几个月
‪摧毁了东海岸的大部分地区…
destroying so much of the country's east coast--
In 2020, Australia endured a summer from hell.
‪2020年 澳大利亚经历了‪地狱一样的夏天
And our only way out is now
‪我们现在唯一的出路就是
a treacherous gauntlet of fallen trees and flames.
‪倒下的树木与火焰构成的险恶之境
Fueled by record-breaking temperatures and months of severe drought,
‪在破纪录的温度和‪数月严重旱灾的刺激下
50 million acres of lands were incinerated.
‪3亿亩的土地被焚毁
People fear this will become the new normal.
‪人们担心这会成为新常态
But the science says there will be no normal.
‪但是科学显示不存在常态
Daniella Teixeira studies glossy black cockatoos,
‪丹妮艾拉泰谢拉研究辉凤头鹦鹉
one of Australia's most vulnerable birds.
‪这是澳大利亚最脆弱的一种鸟类
Glossy black cockatoos let you get really close to them.
‪辉凤头鹦鹉让你真正接近它们
They will learn who you are, and, in places where you visit regularly,
‪它们会知道你是谁‪而且会去你经常去的地方
they actually, I think, get to know who you are,
‪我想 它们实际上知道你是谁
and so you can actually go up to them,
‪所以你可以上前去找它们
sit underneath the tree where they're feeding,
‪坐在它们觅食的树下‪去认识它们中的每一位
and get to know the individual birds.
As soon as it was safe to do so,
‪当这样做安全时
Daniella returned to one of her main study sites
‪丹妮艾拉回到了‪她在南澳大利亚袋鼠岛上的
on Kangaroo Island off South Australia.
‪一个主要研究点
It's February. Nesting season for the cockatoos.
‪现在是二月 是凤头鹦鹉的筑巢期
‪根本就没有任何野生动物的踪迹
There's no sign of any wildlife at all.
Um…
There's nothing left here.
‪这里什么都没有了
It just looks like
‪看起来就像是
complete carnage.
‪经历了大屠杀
It's almost like I'm not looking at the spot that I know.
‪就好像眼前并非我认识的地方
Like it's almost like this can't be the same spot,
‪因为这里已经满目疮痍
because it's so starkly different.
‪感觉不可能是同一个地方
Yeah, I've spent the last four years
‪我在过去的四年中
working in this very location, so this is…
‪一直在这个地方工作 这是关于…
This is about, um…
Yeah, this is about as hard as it gets. This spot was really, um…
‪这种情况已经艰难到极致了‪这里真的是…
Like there was a big commotion every evening.
‪本来每天晚上都很热闹
We would have had young chicks by this point.
‪这时我们本该有雏鸟了
This is… This is heartbreaking.
‪这真是令人心碎
Jesus.
‪天啊
I know this nest
‪我很了解
pretty well.
‪这个巢穴
It's absolutely horrible to see it like this.
‪看到它变成这样真的像是噩梦
And all that's left is…
‪唯一剩下的就只是
Is the iron collar just burnt on the ground.
‪扔在地上被烧毁的铁圈
Like, the iron collar is…
‪铁圈
Is what we put on the nest trees to save them.
‪是我们放在它们筑巢的树上‪用来保护它们的
To stop the possums
‪为了阻止负鼠
from…
‪攻击雏鸟
From predating on the chicks.
And just to see all around me these iron collars just
‪看看我周围这些铁圈
open on the ground.
‪它们就这样散落在地上
You know, they weren't enough to save them.
‪这些铁圈还不足以拯救它们
This is an ecological catastrophe. There's no doubt about it.
‪毫无疑问 这是一场生态灾难
The 2020 bushfires
‪2020年的森林大火是澳大利亚历史上
were the most devastating in Australia's history.
‪最严重的一次
Climate scientists have been talking about these events
‪长期以来 气候科学家一直在讨论
for a long time,
‪这些事件…
‪（丹妮艾拉泰谢拉博士‪昆士兰大学）
and we were expecting that this might happen,
‪…我们原本以为这可能会发生
but I don't think anybody expected it to be so soon
‪但我认为没有人会想到‪它会发生得如此快
‪或者说如此严重
or so severe.
Scientists estimate that the fires killed or displaced three billion animals.
‪科学家估计
‪这场大火造成30亿只动物‪死亡或流离失所
1.43 million mammals,
‪其中包括143万只哺乳动物
2.46 billion reptiles,
‪24,6亿条爬行动物
180 million birds,
‪1,8亿只鸟
and 51 million frogs.
‪还有5100万只青蛙
These figures are so enormous,
‪这些数字如此庞大
‪也如此重要
so consequential…
I don't know how to make sense of them.
‪我不知道该如何理解它们
That's not what we should be dealing with as conservationists.
‪这不是我们作为环保主义者‪应该面对的问题
I think this is a wake-up call.
‪我想这是个警钟
These black summer fires really showed us that it's now,
‪这些黑色的夏日之火真的向我们展示
it's affecting us today,
‪现在它正影响着我们
and this is gonna have long-lasting consequences.
‪而且会造成持久的后果
Like, where can he go?
‪它又能去哪里？
Wildfires and coral bleaching
‪森林大火和珊瑚白化是由于‪我们越过了气候界限造成的
are caused by us overstepping the climate boundary.
But it is the destruction of nature that lies behind what has been by far
‪但是正是对大自然的破坏‪才是我们这个不稳定的星球
the most far-reaching impact of our destabilizing planet.
‪迄今为止最深远的影响
The COVID-19 pandemic.
‪2019冠状病毒病大流行
It affected your life as it affected mine.
‪影响了你我的生活
COVID-19 was a planetary impact we were ill-equipped to deal with.
‪2019冠状病毒病
‪是我们对于这个星球无法应对的影响
It overwhelmed health services
‪它令卫生服务不堪重负
and brought the global economy to its knees.
‪并使全球经济陷入瘫痪
‪（欢迎来到卡纳比街）
Though it surprised many,
‪虽然让很多人感到惊讶
the World Health Organization had forewarned that it was coming.
‪但是世界卫生组织‪已经预先警告它即将到来
I think it was a question of time.
‪我认为这只是时间问题
‪（玛丽亚内拉博士‪世界卫生组织）
Er, we were destroying nature. We were destroying our ecosystems.
‪我们在破坏大自然‪我们在破坏我们的生态系统
We have been doing very aggressive agricultural practices.
‪我们一直在进行‪极具侵略性的农业活动
We were doing an incredible, very aggressive deforestation.
‪我们进行了一场不可思议的‪毁灭性森林砍伐
If you add to that the fact that we live in very polluted cities
‪再加上我们生活在污染严重
with a very high population density,
‪人口密度很高的城市
I think all of those elements were kind of contributing to create
‪我认为所有这些元素
the perfect scenario for any new virus to spread.
‪为任何新病毒的传播‪都创造了完美的场景
Zoonotic diseases emerge and spread into the human population
‪当大自然的恢复力被削弱时
when nature's resilience is weakened.
‪人畜共患的疾病就会出现‪并且在人群中传播
It's not healthy nature that causes pandemics.
‪导致大流行病的是不健康的大自然
In terms of transmission of the diseases,
‪在疾病的传播方面
it's only with certain species under certain circumstances
‪这只是在特定情况下对某些物种而言
and when we invade their environment in a very aggressive way.
‪而且我们是以一种极具侵略性的方式‪入侵了它们的环境
So, for the human health, animal health, and environmental health,
‪人类健康、动物健康和环境健康
the three are so much linked.
‪这三者紧密相关
Exposure to nature is good,
‪接触大自然是好事
provided we do not destroy nature
‪前提是我们不去破坏
and we not destroy the ecosystems where other species are able to live.
‪我们也不破坏生态系统
‪这样其它物种才能生存
COVID-19, I feel, has made us understand
‪我觉得
‪新冠病毒
for the first time that,
‪第一次让我们理解了
"Oh my God, something that goes wrong somewhere else on the planet
‪“老天 这个星球上‪其他某个地方出了问题
can suddenly hit the whole world economy
‪会突然影响世界整体经济
and can change my life, like, immediately."
‪还会立刻改变我的生活”
The appearance of COVID-19
‪新冠毒病的出现
was a clear warning that all is not well with our planet.
‪是一个明确的警告‪显示我们的星球一切都很糟糕
But it's also given us an opportunity to rebuild in a new direction.
‪但是它也给了我们一个
‪在新的方向重建的机会
Now that Johan and his colleagues have turned on the headlights,
‪现在约翰与他的同事们打开了前灯
we can clearly see the boundaries.
‪我们能够清晰地看到那些界限
We can see the path back to a safe space,
‪我们可以看到回到安全空间的路径
to a more resilient future.
‪通往更具韧性的未来
It is achievable.
‪这是可以实现的
It's not a question anymore of doing economic growth here
‪这不再是一个在这里做经济增长
and then do some environmental impact reduction over here.
‪然后再在这里做一些‪减少环境影响的问题了
Oh no, now it's a question of framing the entire growth model
‪现在 这是围绕可持续性
around sustainability,
‪制定整体增长模式的问题
and have the planet guide everything we do.
‪让这个星球来引导我们要做的一切
An immediate priority is to reduce carbon emissions to zero
‪当务之急是将碳排放减少到零
and stabilize global temperature as low as we possibly can.
‪并把全球温度稳定在尽可能低的水平
The window is still open for us to be able to avoid passing two degrees.
‪那扇窗还在为我们敞开着
‪让我们能够避免让气温超过2度
It's even open to come to 1.5.
‪甚至开到让我们把气温控制在1,5度
But the window is really just…
‪但是这扇窗真的只是…
It's… It's barely open.
‪勉强打开
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution,
‪自从工业革命开始以来
we have emitted 2,400 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
‪我们已经排放了2,4万亿吨二氧化碳
To stay below 1.5 degrees,
‪想要把温度控制在1,5摄氏度以下
we must emit less than 300 billion tons more.
‪我们必须再排放‪少于3000亿吨二氧化碳
‪如果我们每年的排放量是400亿吨
If we continue to emit 40 billion tons each year,
our budget will run out within seven years.
‪我们将在七年内耗尽预算
Of course, we cannot shut down
‪当然 我们不可能在一夜之间
all energy utilities in the world overnight,
‪关闭世界上所有的能源设施
so the only orderly way to do this
‪所以唯一有秩序的方法是
is to bend the global curve of emissions now,
‪现在要改变全球的排放曲线‪因为这是所有科学的研究证明
because that's what all science shows.
Now is the last chance we have to bend the global curve.
‪现在是我们改变全球曲线的最后机会
What is the most rapid pace of emission reduction
‪我们能够实现的最快速的
that we can accomplish?
‪减排速度是多少？
Well, there's no study that suggests that we can go faster than 6, 7% per year,
‪没有研究表明 我们可以比‪每年百分之六、七的速度更快
‪因为如果每年百分之六、七的话‪那就是在十年内减少一半
because 6, 7% per year, that is cutting by half in a decade.
Cutting our emissions in half every decade
‪每十年将减少一半排放量
is an exponential rate of change.
‪是指数级的变化速度
Anyone can adopt this pace.
‪任何人都可以采用这种速度
I mean, you and I can do it as individuals.
‪我和你可以单独行动
We can say, "Okay, from now on, myself and my family
‪我们可以说：‪“从现在开始 我和我的家人
will try to cut emissions by half every decade,"
‪将尝试每十年减少一半排放量“
which would mean that you would be fossil fuel-free
‪这意味着 你在这一代30年间
in one generation, in 30 years' time.
‪不使用化石燃料
And a company can do it, or a country can do it,
‪公司可以做到 或者国家可以做到
or the world can/must do it.
‪或者世界可以 也必须做到
Phasing out fossil fuels will, of course,
‪当然 逐步淘汰化石燃料
begin our journey back towards the safe space
‪将开始我们回到地球界限范围内
within the climate boundary.
‪安全空间的旅程
And it will also substantially reduce air pollution
‪这将大幅减少空气污染
and also slow down ocean acidification
‪还能减缓海洋酸化
as well as reduce pressure on biodiversity.
‪以及降低对生物多样性的压力
But zero emissions are not enough.
‪但是零污染还是不够
We must also draw down the carbon that's already overheating the planet,
‪我们还必须减少
‪已经使地球过热的碳
and there's one very effective way to do this.
‪有个非常有效的方法可以做到这点
Plant more trees.
‪那就是多多种树
A global effort to plant billions of trees
‪在全球范围内种植数十亿棵树
could be one of the most cost-effective and achievable solutions
‪可能是解决气候危机
‪最具成本效益和可实现的
to the climate crisis.
‪解决方案之一
And growing more trees is vital to offset the carbon we continue to emit
‪而种更多的树对于抵消
‪我们继续排放的碳至关重要
as we strive to reach zero emissions as fast as we can.
‪因为我们正努力以最快的速度
‪实现零排放
Of course, capturing carbon
‪当然 碳捕捉
is only one of the benefits that trees provide.
‪只是树木提供的好处之一
Cheikh Mbow has collaborated with Johan for many years.
‪谢赫姆博与约翰合作了很多年
He's an advocate for trees.
‪他是树木的拥护者
Trees prevent soil erosion.
‪树木能防止水土流失
Without trees, there will be less rain.
‪没有树木 雨水就会减少
If we plant trees in the fields,
‪如果我们在田地里种树
the fertility of the fields and, therefore, production will increase.
‪会增加田地的肥沃度
‪产量也会增加
We want to bring the tree back to its place
‪我们想让树木回到
at the center of sustainable development.
‪持续发展的中心位置
Our job is to make sure that wherever a tree can grow,
‪我们的工作是确保‪在所有树木能够生长的地方
we plant one.
‪都种上树
Planting trees and restoring our natural world
‪植树和恢复我们的自然世界
will, of course, have huge benefits for our planet's biodiversity,
‪当然会对我们星球的生物多样性‪产生极大的好处
but it will also help to stabilize our climate, our fresh water,
‪它也将有助于稳定我们的气候和淡水
‪为我们的粮食生产和大自然
and have enormous benefits for our food production
‪免费提供的所有其他服务
and all the other services that nature provides for free.
‪提供巨大的好处
Just imagine, for the first time since the dawn of humanity,
‪试想一下 自人类诞生以来
we could wake up one morning
‪我们第一次早上在一个拥有
on a planet with more wildlife than there was when we went to sleep.
‪比我们睡觉时更多野生动物的‪星球上醒来
There's another transformation that is almost unbelievably simple,
‪还有一个转变‪几乎简单得令人难以置信
but it's key to staying within our planet's boundaries.
‪但是它是维持在‪我们地球界限内的关键
It can be adopted by you or me.
‪你或我都可以采用
In fact, by anyone with the freedom to choose what food they eat.
‪事实上 任何人都可以
‪自由选择吃什么
Now, the exciting thing is the diet that is more flexitarian,
‪现在 令人振奋的是‪更加灵活的饮食习惯
less red meat, more plant-based protein,
‪少吃红肉 多吃植物性蛋白
more fruit and nuts, less starchy foods,
‪多吃水果和坚果 少吃淀粉类食物
if you take that diet
‪如果你采取这种饮食方式
and assume that all people would eat healthy food,
‪假设所有人都吃健康食物
we could actually come back within a safe operating space,
‪我们就可以回到安全的运作空间
not only on climate, but also on biodiversity,
‪不仅仅体现在气候方面‪也在生物多样性方面
on land, on water, on nitrogen and phosphorus.
‪还在土地、水、营养物质和磷方面
Quite exciting that eating healthy food
‪相当令人激动的是 吃健康食物
might be the single most important way of contributing to save the planet.
‪可能是为拯救这个星球‪做出贡献唯一最重要的方式
There's one more transformation that is vital.
‪还有一个至关重要的转变
It would bring us back towards the safe zone
‪它会把我们带回‪在我们所有的地球界限
within all our planet's boundaries.
‪范围内的安全区
Imagine a world without waste,
‪想象一个没有浪费
with nothing to throw away.
‪没有任何东西可以丢弃的世界
Our waste is created by design.
‪我们的浪费是设计出来的
When we make products,
‪当我们制造产品时
we rarely build in the means to recover the raw materials.
‪我们很少建立回收原材料的手段
If we turn that linear system into a circular one,
‪如果我们把线性系统变成循环系统
designing products so that the raw materials
‪设计能够回收
can all be recovered,
‪原材料的产品
our use of resources could be infinite.
‪我们对资源的利用就可能是无限的
So more and more evidence shows that circular economies
‪因此越来越多的证据显示
are fundamental if we are to stand a chance
‪如果我们有机会为世界上的所有公民
of providing good lives for all citizens in the world.
‪提供良好的生活
‪循环经济是根本
Eliminating waste would bring us closer to the safe zone for climate,
‪消除浪费将使我们更接近气候
biodiversity, and especially nutrients, novel entities, and air pollution.
‪生物多样性、特别是营养物质
‪新实体和空气污染的安全区
The planetary boundaries have given us a clear path ahead.
‪地球界限给我们提供了一条‪清晰的前路
Simple things, like choosing renewable energy,
‪还有比如选择可再生能源
eating healthy food, planting trees,
‪吃健康食物、植树造林
saying no to waste.
‪拒绝浪费这些简单的事
Together, these could transform our future on Earth.
‪这些加在一起可以改变‪我们在地球上的未来
And the magic in this is that these transformations
‪其中的神奇之处在于
would also improve all our lives right now.
‪这些转变也将改善‪我们所有人现在的生活
Even if you don't care at all about the planet
‪即便你根本不在乎这个星球
and even if you don't care too much about equity in the world,
‪也不太关心世界上是否存在公平
‪而是带着私心‪只关注自己和自己的家庭
but rather are selfish, just focusing on yourself
and your family and your own life,
‪还有自己的生活
which I think is a very respectful position to have
‪我认为对于应对日常生活的人来说
as a human being struggling with everyday life,
‪这是非常值得尊重的立场
still you would want to come back to a safe operating space.
‪你还是会想回到安全运行空间
Everyone would benefit immediately of having clean air,
‪每个人都会立即得益于‪拥有洁净的空气
giving more healthy and longer life expectancies.
‪给予更多健康和更长的预期寿命
Your children would be healthier.
‪你的孩子会更健康
Coming back within planetary boundaries
‪回到地球界限
also means you are more likely to live in,
‪也意味着你更有可能生活在
‪有稳定市场和稳定工作的社会里
in societies with, you know, stable markets and stable jobs,
which then reduces risks of conflict and instability where you're living.
‪这样就减少了你所生活地方的冲突‪和不稳定的风险
So, all in all,
‪总的说来
you want to be in a safe space,
‪你想在一个安全空间里‪而不是一个一切都在不断变化的
rather than being in a danger zone where everything is just in flux.
‪危险区里
What we do between 2020 and 2030,
‪从我们如今掌握的证据来看‪我们在2020年
from the evidence we have today, my conclusion is,
‪至2030年之间应该做些什么‪我的结论是
it will be the decisive decade for humanity's future on Earth.
‪这将是决定性的十年‪关乎着人类在地球上的未来
The future's not determined.
‪未来并不确定
The future is in our hands.
‪未来掌握在我们手中
What happens over the next centuries
‪未来几个世纪会发生什么
will be determined of how we play our cards this decade.
‪将取决于我们‪在这十年里如何谨慎行事
It's a remarkable time to be alive,
‪这是个伟大的时代
but it also carries great responsibility to act decisively.
‪但也承载着要决然采取行动的
‪巨大责任
We have no time to lose.
‪我们不能再浪费时间了
What would we do if we had had a report tomorrow morning
‪如果明早收到一份报告‪内容是一颗小行星
saying that an asteroid is on its way to Earth?
‪正在前往地球的途中‪我们该怎么办？
Well, I'm sure that we would just put everything else aside
‪我相信我们会把所有事都放到一旁
and just focus then on solving the problem.
‪然后专心解决这个问题
Cost whatever cost it takes.
‪并且不惜一切代价
It is now clear from the science
‪现在从科学的角度可以清楚地看出
that the planetary crisis we are facing requires the same united response.
‪我们所面临的地球危机
‪需要同样的团结一致的对策
I would say that we do not have
‪我想说 如果是这样
environmental problems in the world anymore.
‪我们在世界上就没有环境问题了
Destabilizing the planet…
‪破坏这个星球的稳定…
The risk of destabilizing the planet is a question of security and stability
‪破坏地球稳定的风险‪对全世界所有的科学家而言
for all societies in the world.
‪是安全和稳定的问题
Therefore, it is a question for the Security Council.
‪因此 这是需要由‪联合国安理会解决的问题
I think one should put the planetary boundaries right at the center
‪我认为我们应该把地球界限
‪放到世界上
of the most strategic top governance level we have in the world,
‪最具战略意义的最高管理层的‪中心位置
which is the United Nations Security Council.
‪也就是联合国安理会
Such a global response is now within reach as never before.
‪现在这样的全球应对措施‪比以往任何时候都更有可能实现
There's something bigger happening right now,
‪现在有一些更大的事情正在发生
which is that one species, we humans,
‪那就是我们人类作为一个物种
are such a dominant force on the planet
‪是这个星球上的主导力量
in a way that we haven't seen across the eons
‪在过去40亿年的时间里
over the past four billion years.
‪我们从未见过这样的支配方式
Mother Earth is under continuous diagnosis
‪地球母亲正在接受
and continuous observation.
‪持续诊断和持续观察
The digitalization and the hyper-connectivity
‪目前 科学界和观察界的
in the world of science and in the world of observation
‪数字化和超级连接
now means we've covered the whole planet with knowledge.
‪意味着我们已经‪用知识覆盖了整个星球
What if we're now entering
‪如果我们现在进入
a new, unique geological epoch
‪一个全新 且独特的地质时代
that is not only geophysically defined,
‪这不仅是由地球物理来定义
but also defined by the fact that we have
‪是由我们有一个植入这个星球的
a new consciousness embedded inside the planet?
‪新意识这一事实来定义‪会怎么样呢？
Thanks to the work of scientists like Johan Rockström,
‪感谢像约翰罗克斯特罗姆‪这样的科学家们的工作
we now have the capacity to act as Earth's conscience, its brain.
‪我们现在有能力成为地球的意识‪即它的大脑
Thinking and acting with one unified purpose
‪以一个统一的目标思考和行动
to ensure that our planet forever remains healthy and resilient.
‪确保我们的地球‪永远保持健康和恢复能力
The perfect home.
‪成为我们的完美家园
‪